Unseasonal rains in states like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar have caused significant damage to Rabi crops. As the crops were ready for harvest, untimely showers led to the flattening of wheat and mustard crops. The damage is not limited to the current crop. The intensifying Israel-Iran conflict is also creating uncertainty for the upcoming sowing season. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to impact supplies and could push food prices higher in the coming days.
Weather Damage Hits Crops Hard
Recent rains and strong winds have caused crop flattening in states like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar. This phenomenon is called lodging. This not only makes mechanical harvesting difficult but also increases the chances of grain discoloration. At the same time, excessive moisture during the harvesting stage is raising the risk of fungal infections and reducing grain weight. According to experts, although the damage is uneven, rainfall in some areas has been over 400% above normal, which is likely to reduce overall production.
Similarly, Waterlogging in Uttar Pradesh is also raising concerns about potato rot. Meanwhile, hailstorms in Rajasthan have damaged up to 80% of Isabgol and 40% of cumin crops. Perishable crops like tomatoes and mango blossoms have also suffered significant losses.
The IMD Warning
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of heightened El Niño activity, which typically leads to hotter summers and reduced rainfall. The early onset of summer in March this year is further amplifying the impact. Reports suggest that regions in Gujarat and Maharashtra are already witnessing uneven weather patterns, adding to farmers’ concerns.
Commodity expert Ajay Kedia said, “As per the IMD warning, the window for Kharif crops will be shorter. Additionally, due to a shortage of fertilizers, both prices and availability are becoming concerns. Many farmers may compromise on fertilizer usage, which could impact production in the coming seasons. However, it is too early to fully quantify the impact.”
Israel-Iran Conflict
The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran are now affecting agriculture through what experts call the three “Fs”. This is fuel, fertilizer, and finance. A major concern is the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global fertilizer supplies. Shipments of urea and ammonia from Gulf countries are facing delays, and prices of Middle Eastern urea have already risen by around 40%. This could increase input costs for Indian farmers by 20–25% this season.
Increase in logistic costs
Rising crude oil prices are now above USD 112 per barrel. This is also adding to the burden. Higher fuel costs increase expenses for farm operations such as irrigation and transportation. Since India imports nearly 90% of its oil, this fuel-driven inflation quickly translates into higher retail food prices. Exports have also been impacted. Around 400,000 metric tonnes of basmati rice, along with large quantities of onions and grapes, are stuck at ports due to high freight costs and risky shipping conditions.
Impact on Food Prices
Farmers are facing rising costs of fertilizers and pesticides, which is squeezing their profit margins and may discourage sowing in the upcoming Kharif season. Meanwhile, although the government maintains that food stocks remain adequate, fears of supply shortages are already pushing up prices of essentials like wheat and edible oils in local mandis.
